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Cover and illustration of the paper: Sanctions, Dominoes and Diplomatic Self-Harm
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Sanctions, Dominoes and Diplomatic Self-Harm

An investigation into whether a modest act of foreign policy can, with sufficient assistance, become everybody’s problem.

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Applied Geopolitics · 2026

Principal finding

The fact that several dominoes were already leaning is a reason to be more careful about pushing another one. The Department regrets that this required nineteen pages.

A satirical examination of strategic judgement, distinguishing observed events from plausible connections, speculative escalation and remote tail risk. The cascade is not a forecast. The table has nevertheless been referred to Estates.