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Cover and illustration of the paper: Which Way the Draught Blows: A Fluid-Mechanical Survey of NATO’s Eastern Door
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Which Way the Draught Blows: A Fluid-Mechanical Survey of NATO’s Eastern Door

Being an inquiry into whether an alliance expanded or a continent leant, settled by reading the instruments rather than the press releases.

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Aeronautical Engineering & Applied Fluid Mechanics · 2026

Principal finding

Countries are not air parcels, and an alliance is not literally a barn door. The analogy is useful when it disciplines the sequence of evidence and dangerous when it replaces it. The strongest measured pressure change is Finland in 2022; the earlier record requires a more modest pencil.

Secondary finding: the College’s own draught enters at the Porters’ Lodge and leaves by the Senior Common Room chimney, and has done so since 978 (ish). Nobody has suggested the chimney provoked it. The treaty articles, accession dates, polls, troop figures and quotations are real and referenced; the instruments, the Fellow and the corridor are not.